What today’s DC-area market in November 2026 means for buyers and sellers
If you’re buying around Washington this fall, the monthly payment may be higher than you’d hoped, but you may have more room to negotiate. If you’re selling, the price you could have gotten last year—or five years ago—may be quite different from what buyers will pay today. Here are four things I’m watching as we head into Thanksgiving.
1. Higher rates change what buyers can afford. The national average 30-year mortgage rate rose from 6.66% in late August to 7.40% in early October. In an example cited by Keeping Current Matters, that increase took about $22,000 off the target purchase price for a buyer budgeting $2,000 a month for principal and interest. Here in the Washington metro, new purchase contracts fell about 20% in October from a year earlier. It is even more important than before for buyers to understand what their monthly payment will be before settling on a price range. Sellers need to understand that even a buyer who loves their house may have to pass if the payment stretches the budget too far.
My advice to the many buyers who are just sitting out this market: If it is possible, you should reconsider your search criteria. Can you find a home in a less expensive neighborhood? Can you focus on a smaller home which will serve your needs for five or seven years before you purchase your forever home? There are still so many benefits to home ownership that buyers should continue to try to purchase – even if it is not the forever home but can become an investment property going forward.
2. More choices give buyers more leverage. The DC metro ended October with 22% more homes for sale than a year earlier, even though fewer new listings came on. If a home has been sitting and buyers have several similar options, there may be room to negotiate on price, closing costs, repairs, or inspection terms. If you’re selling, look at the homes that buyers can tour this weekend. If two of them have updated kitchens and yours is still waiting for its turn, that difference needs to show up somewhere in your pricing or preparation.
My advice to sellers dealing with this market? Talk to your agent about what changes you can make to improve your home’s salability. Take the time to tour your competition in person so you understand what the buyers are seeing.
3. The market determines what your home will sell for today. If your house could have sold for $1 million last year or five years ago, that number is a piece of history. Today’s buyers will compare your home with what they can buy now. In October, the median sale price was down just under 1% across the metro and up 3.6% in the District itself. Montgomery County was down 2.6% from September and Northern Virginia prices were essentially flat. The market sets the conditions you’re selling into but you can improve how your home compares to the competition. For your own home, I’d start with recent comparable sales and the listings you’re competing with right now. Take care of repairs, freshen the paint, improve the lighting, and make the house easier to show. If buyers are touring and consistently choosing another home, take a fresh look at how yours compares and whether the price reflects that.
My advice to sellers? Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that you shouldn’t paint and make simple upgrades because the buyer will just repaint or rip out your changes. With the high interest rates and high prices, buyers, particularly at the entry level, do not have the extra cash for fresh paint, new bathroom vanities or stainless appliances. Isn’t it better to spend a little money upfront rather than reduce your sale price several times?
My advice to buyers? Make sure that you are looking at the homes that have been on the market for a while. Those sellers may be reluctant to reduce the sale price in the MLS but willing to negotiate an offer. In addition, keep an eye out for homes that aren’t selling because they need the bushes trimmed or they need a fresh coat of paint. You can build instant sweat equity with a paint brush and clipping shears.
4. Negotiate around what matters most. Buyers, ask your lender to show you what a lower price, a closing-cost credit, or a seller-paid rate buydown would do for your actual numbers. Sellers, compare what each option would cost you and what you’d net. A credit may solve a buyer’s cash-at-closing problem and help put a deal together. And yes, buyers may be able to refinance later if rates fall, they still qualify, and the savings justify the costs. Buy with a payment you can live with today. If rates do come down, some of the buyers who’ve been waiting may be right back out there touring houses with you and driving prices up all over again.
My advice to buyers now: It helps to have a seasoned agent on your side who has been through a challenging market before and has some ideas of how to bridge the gap between what you can pay and what the seller wants by employing some credits or buy downs that makes a ratified contract palatable to both sides. In a market like this, it is important that you, your agent and your lender get a bit creative in how to present that offer. If the seller is not realistic, just move on and find the one that is.
My advice to sellers now: Don’t be surprised or offended if the buyer asks for a closing credit or a rate buy down. This is not the market driven by 3% interest rates. Keep an eye on your bottom line and see if this contract will get you there. Remember that in many cases, your first offer is your best offer. Don’t let memories of two or three years ago get in the way of your moving to the next stage of your life. If you are purchasing a new home yourself, think of how your negotiating position may be improved when you are the buyer.
If you’re wondering what your home would compete with today, or how much room you might have to negotiate on a home you like, reply to this email. I’m happy to pull the local numbers and talk through what they mean for you.