Here in Washington, an election can change someone’s job, commute or plans to renew a lease. So, it’s a fair question. If you’re buying or selling a home in Bethesda, Chevy Chase or DC, should the midterm results change your plans?
The answer begins with what was happening before Election Day. The October numbers tell us a good deal about the market buyers and sellers were already facing.
Buyers had more choices before the election
In the Washington, DC metro area, new purchase contracts fell 20.4% in October compared with a year earlier, while active listings at month’s end rose 22.1%, according to Bright MLS. The regional median sale price was $625,000, down just 0.8%. There were more homes to choose from and fewer buyers signing contracts, yet the median price held fairly steady. Across the broader Bright MLS service area, the average October mortgage rate was about a full percentage point higher than a year earlier. Anyone who has asked a lender to run the monthly payment twice knows what a difference that can make.
What happened after past elections?
UrbanTurf’s look back at election years sent me to two comparisons. The Northern Virginia Association of Realtors found that regional home sales fell 5.8% in the year after the 2010 midterms and rose 3.8% after the 2018 midterms. Separately, NBC4 reported that National Association of Realtors research found a roughly 10% increase in DC-area sales in the year after presidential elections, with median prices rising about 5%. Those presidential-election figures cover a different kind of transition. Mortgage rates and changes in well-paying jobs were also part of the picture.
And where do incoming staffers actually live? Some already live here. Others may rent while they get to know the area and settle into a new job. A change in congressional staffing could show up in rental inquiries before it shows up in home sales. UrbanTurf’s midterm housing analysis
The luxury market can have its own story
After the 2016 presidential election, UrbanTurf reported that incoming Cabinet nominees bought high-end homes and that agents saw more activity in upper price ranges in places including Bethesda, McLean and Alexandria. That’s an interesting example of how a presidential transition can affect a particular group of properties. If you’re selling a two-bedroom condo in Friendship Heights, I’d still give far more weight to what has sold in your building and what buyers can tour nearby this weekend. UrbanTurf’s reporting on the 2016 transition
Federal hiring, workforce cuts, spending decisions and shutdowns can matter in very personal ways. If your household is waiting to learn whether a job or contract will continue, that may be the deciding factor in whether you move. If your plans are firm, the numbers I’d look at are your monthly payment, the homes available in your price range and what comparable properties are actually selling for. UrbanTurf’s midterm housing analysis
What I’d do if you’re buying or selling now
If you’re buying, ask your lender to update the payment estimate before you revisit your favorite listings. Then look at the specific home. Has it been on the market through several weekends? Has the seller adjusted the price? Is there another home nearby you’d be just as happy to own? Those answers help us decide whether there’s room to negotiate on price, closing costs or terms.
If you’re selling, compare your home with the properties a buyer would seriously consider alongside it. Look at what’s available today as well as what recently sold. A detached home in Bethesda and a condo in Chevy Chase can face very different competition, even when they share the same headlines.
If you’re weighing a move in Bethesda, Chevy Chase or Washington, DC, email me at lise@lisehowe.com. I’m happy to look at what’s selling, what’s sitting and what that means for your plans.